STRANOVA, SPIN's computer rating system, projects Indiana 31, USC 20 on Saturday, Nov. 14 at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on CBS. The model's margin is 10.4 points and Indiana's win chance is 68%. Indiana is No. 9 and USC is No. 18 in the CFP rankings released Nov. 10.
Locked Nov. 10. STRANOVA's projection for this game was locked on Tuesday, Nov. 10 at 2:24 PM MT, days before kickoff, and it has not changed since. Whatever happens in the betting market or the news this week, the numbers in this report stay as they were locked, so you can grade them after the game.
A note on the ranks in this report. Every rank below, shown as a STRANOVA rank, is SPIN's own rating of all 138 FBS teams, built from this season's results. It is not the CFP ranking, the AP poll or any other poll, so a team's STRANOVA rank and its CFP number can differ.
Not everyone at SPIN agrees with the model. Some members of SPIN leadership have USC winning outright. The report below shows why the game is closer than the margin suggests.
STRANOVA against the market
| Item | Market | STRANOVA |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana by 7.5 (Fox shows 6.5) | Indiana by 10.4 |
| Win chance | About 71% Indiana, from a money line of minus 285 Indiana and plus 230 USC | 68% Indiana |
| Total | 49.5 | About 51 (Indiana 31, USC 20) |
STRANOVA is higher than the market on the margin and a little lower on win chance. The market lines were pulled on Nov. 10 and may move before kickoff, so check your sportsbook. STRANOVA did not use the lines and will not move with them.
The matchup, unit by unit
Each unit is ranked among 138 FBS teams after adjusting for the quality of the offenses and defenses it faced. A lower number is better.
| Unit | Indiana STRANOVA rank | USC STRANOVA rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring offense | 42 | 17 | USC |
| Rushing offense | 20 | 97 | Indiana |
| Passing offense | 14 | 6 | Even |
| Scoring defense | 1 | 47 | Indiana |
| Rush defense | 5 | 47 | Indiana |
| Pass defense | 7 | 71 | Indiana |
Overall, Indiana is ninth and USC is 22nd in STRANOVA's ratings. Indiana's scoring defense is first in the country and allows 12.4 points a game. Its soft spot is scoring offense, 42nd despite good yardage, which traces to finishing drives. USC's passing offense is sixth, but its run game is 97th against Indiana's fifth ranked run defense, so it has to win through the air.
Who each team has played
| Indiana (8 wins, 1 loss) | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas, Sept. 5 | Home | Won 52 to 16 |
| Howard (FCS), Sept. 12 | Home | Won 55 to 0 |
| Western Kentucky, Sept. 19 | Home | Won 38 to 0 |
| Northwestern, Sept. 26 | Home | Won 29 to 23 |
| Rutgers, Oct. 4 | Road | Won 47 to 15 |
| Nebraska, Oct. 10 | Road | Won 20 to 17 |
| Ohio State, Oct. 17 | Home | Lost 15 to 19 |
| Michigan, Oct. 24 | Road | Won 13 to 6 |
| Minnesota, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 23 to 16 |
| USC (7 wins, 2 losses) | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San José State, Aug. 29 | Home | Won 42 to 26 |
| Fresno State, Sept. 5 | Home | Won 39 to 0 |
| Louisiana, Sept. 13 | Home | Won 49 to 30 |
| Rutgers, Sept. 19 | Road | Won 42 to 35 |
| Oregon, Sept. 26 | Home | Lost 27 to 41 |
| Washington, Oct. 3 | Home | Won 25 to 21 |
| Penn State, Oct. 10 | Road | Won 31 to 23 |
| Wisconsin, Oct. 24 | Road | Lost 7 to 24 |
| Ohio State, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 30 to 18 |
The two teams share two opponents. Indiana lost to Ohio State 15 to 19 at home, while USC beat the Buckeyes 30 to 18 at home. Both beat Rutgers on the road, Indiana 47 to 15 and USC 42 to 35. Indiana's FBS opponents average 55th in scoring offense in STRANOVA's ranks, against 63rd for USC's. The Howard game is left out of every average.
What each unit did against its opponent's norm
The sturdiest test is what a team did compared with what that opponent normally gives up or produces, not counting that game. Indiana's passing offense, measured in net yards per dropback with sacks counted against it, beat the opponent norm in 7 of its 8 FBS games. USC's passing game beat the norm in 8 of 9. USC's run game beat its norm in only 3 of 9. Indiana's defense held 6 of 8 opponents under their norm in the pass game. Indiana has only five home games against FBS opponents and USC only three on the road, so the home and road splits are small samples.
Finishing drives and money downs
Yards and possession do not decide games. What a team does once it reaches the 20 does, and so do third and fourth down. Red zone figures below cover FBS games only.
| Indiana | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Red zone trips per game, offense | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Touchdown rate, offense | 59% | 65% |
| Points per trip, offense | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Touchdown rate allowed, defense | 35% | 62% |
| Points per trip allowed, defense | 3.65 | 5.03 |
| Third down conversion, offense | 40% | 50% |
| Third down conversion allowed, defense | 32% | 36% |
USC finishes more trips with touchdowns than Indiana does, but Indiana's defense allows touchdowns on only 35% of opponent trips. STRANOVA's expected red zone points for Saturday are about 19 for Indiana and about 16 for USC. In a bad red zone game, with the touchdown rate at the lower of the two teams' marks, Indiana loses about 0.2 points and USC loses about 2.2.
The three closest comparables
For each team, STRANOVA finds the three past opponents whose offense and defense profile best matches Saturday's opponent.
| Indiana against teams like USC | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State, Oct. 17 | Home | Lost 15 to 19 |
| Minnesota, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 23 to 16 |
| North Texas, Sept. 5 | Home | Won 52 to 16 |
| USC against teams like Indiana | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 30 to 18 |
| Wisconsin, Oct. 24 | Road | Lost 7 to 24 |
| Oregon, Sept. 26 | Home | Lost 27 to 41 |
Indiana averaged a 13 point win against USC type opponents, all at home. USC averaged a 6.3 point loss against Indiana type opponents, which is about 9.8 at Indiana. Averaging the two views gives Indiana by about 11.4, against 10.4 for the model and 7.5 for the market. Treat it as a sanity check, since it rests on three games per team and different quarterbacks in several of them.
The availability factor
STRANOVA rates teams from results, so it does not adjust for who is under center. Here is what the recent games say, shown as scenarios beside the locked projection.
Indiana's quarterback. Indiana replaced Josh Hoover with Grant Wilson at halftime of its 23 to 16 win over Minnesota. Hoover has struggled in recent games and has been playing through an arm injury since the Ohio State game, according to news reports. Indiana had an open week, and coach Curt Cignetti has not named Saturday's starter.
USC's Trent Mosley. The receiver missed the Rutgers, Oregon and Washington games with a knee injury. He returned at Penn State on Oct. 10 and played at Wisconsin and against Ohio State. USC then had a bye. With Mosley healthy, USC's offense averaged 11.5 points a game above its opponents' norms, compared with 4.1 in the three games he missed.
Recent form. USC's defense over its last four games has allowed 7.1 fewer points than its opponents' norms, against 2.2 for the season. Indiana's offense over its last four is 1.5 points under the norm, against 5.2 above it for the season.
| Scenario | Indiana margin | Indiana win chance |
|---|---|---|
| STRANOVA projection (locked Nov. 10) | 10.4 | 68% |
| Conservative recent form | 5.6 | 60% |
| Central | 3.5 | 56% |
| Aggressive | 0.8 | 51% |
The scenarios weight each team's recent games more heavily than its full season. They do not change the locked STRANOVA projection. Even stacking all the recent trends, Indiana stays a small favorite in every setting.
The swing sheet
The Maiava Line. USC's offense lives on protecting its quarterback. In its two losses USC gave up 3.5 sacks a game, against 0.9 in its seven wins. It converted 35% of third downs in the losses against 54% in the wins, and scored touchdowns on 43% of red zone trips against 69%. Indiana's defense takes down the passer 3.4 times a game, the best number in this matchup by a wide margin.
| Swing number | What it measures | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| The Maiava Line | USC sacks taken per game in losses against wins | 3.5 against 0.9 |
| Sack Swing | Sacks made minus sacks taken per game | Indiana plus 2.0, USC plus 0.7 |
| Money Down Margin | Third down rate minus the rate allowed | USC plus 14 points, Indiana plus 4 |
| Giveaway Gap | Takeaways minus giveaways per game | Indiana plus 0.38, USC minus 0.22 |
| Cash In Rate | Red zone touchdown rate | USC 65%, Indiana 59% |
How Indiana wins
| What has to happen | What the season says | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Find the pass game | Net pass yards per dropback beat the opponent norm in 7 of 8 games, and USC's pass defense is 71st | Likely |
| Keep the giveaways down | Lost 0.4 turnovers per win and 2 in the Ohio State loss | Live |
| Keep USC off the third down | USC converts 50%, Indiana's defense allows 34% | Live |
| Finish drives with touchdowns | Indiana scores touchdowns on 59% of trips, below USC's 65% | Hard |
| Pressure Maiava | Indiana makes 3.4 sacks a game, and USC loses when it gives up 3.5 | The whole game |
How USC wins
| What has to happen | What the season says | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Protect Maiava | 0.9 sacks per win and 3.5 per loss | The whole game |
| Finish in the red zone | 69% touchdown rate in wins, 43% in losses, and Indiana allows 35% | Hard |
| Win third down | 54% in wins, 35% in losses, and Indiana allows 34% | Likely |
| Run game reaches its norm | Over its norm in 3 of 9 games, and Indiana's run defense is fifth | Hard |
| Mosley and the pass game stay hot | Pass game over its norm in 8 of 9 games, and Indiana's pass defense is seventh | Live |
How confident is STRANOVA
Moderate. STRANOVA's walk forward test from 2022 to 2026 picked about 71% of winners with an average miss of about 12.6 points, so read any single margin as a range. The Indiana quarterback situation and USC's recent form widen that range, and the projected total carries low confidence. A 68% pick loses about one time in three.
How STRANOVA works
STRANOVA rates every team from every game it has played. Each result is credited by margin, so a blowout counts for little more than a comfortable win. Home field is credited. Ratings start from conference averages, so a team that has played a weak schedule is not overrated. Last season's finish carries a small starting credit that fades as games accumulate. Every projection is locked before kickoff and graded in public. Projections are statistical estimates for information and entertainment, not wagering advice. Data comes from ESPN public game feeds through Nov. 8, 2026, and market lines are from ESPN, DraftKings and Fox Sports as of Nov. 10. Lines may move.
