Big-city stadium in white light with crimson accents, National region header

STRANOVA, SPIN's computer rating system, has locked picks for the last three FBS games on the Week 11 schedule. They complete the 63-game board that begins with the main Week 11 preview.

| Game | Pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State at San Diego State | Utah State | 57% | Utah State 27, San Diego State 22 |
| Wyoming at UTEP | Wyoming | 71% | Wyoming 29, UTEP 17 |
| Colorado State at Washington State | Washington State | 58% | Colorado State 29, Washington State 34 |

A win chance is the model's read on a single game. It is not a guarantee, and a 70% pick loses about three times in ten. Projected scores split the model's margin across a total built from each team's scoring pace, and the totals carry less confidence than the picks. Not for wagering.

Max Fielder

Three more FBS picks from SPIN's computer rating system: Wyoming, Utah State and Colorado State

STRANOVA Picks Week 11 of College Football: Late Saturday Night Games

STRANOVA, SPIN's computer rating system, projects Indiana 31, USC 20 on Saturday, Nov. 14 at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on CBS. The model's margin is 10.4 points and Indiana's win chance is 68%. Indiana is No. 9 and USC is No. 18 in the CFP rankings released Nov. 10.

**Locked Nov. 10.** STRANOVA's projection for this game was locked on Tuesday, Nov. 10 at 2:24 PM MT, days before kickoff, and it has not changed since. Whatever happens in the betting market or the news this week, the numbers in this report stay as they were locked, so you can grade them after the game.

**A note on the ranks in this report.** Every rank below, shown as a STRANOVA rank, is SPIN's own rating of all 138 FBS teams, built from this season's results. It is not the CFP ranking, the AP poll or any other poll, so a team's STRANOVA rank and its CFP number can differ.

**Not everyone at SPIN agrees with the model.** Some members of SPIN leadership have USC winning outright. The report below shows why the game is closer than the margin suggests.

| Item | Market | STRANOVA |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana by 7.5 (Fox shows 6.5) | Indiana by 10.4 |
| Win chance | About 71% Indiana, from a money line of minus 285 Indiana and plus 230 USC | 68% Indiana |
| Total | 49.5 | About 51 (Indiana 31, USC 20) |

STRANOVA is higher than the market on the margin and a little lower on win chance. The market lines were pulled on Nov. 10 and may move before kickoff, so check your sportsbook. STRANOVA did not use the lines and will not move with them.

Each unit is ranked among 138 FBS teams after adjusting for the quality of the offenses and defenses it faced. A lower number is better.

| Unit | Indiana STRANOVA rank | USC STRANOVA rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring offense | 42 | 17 | USC |
| Rushing offense | 20 | 97 | Indiana |
| Passing offense | 14 | 6 | Even |
| Scoring defense | 1 | 47 | Indiana |
| Rush defense | 5 | 47 | Indiana |
| Pass defense | 7 | 71 | Indiana |

Overall, Indiana is ninth and USC is 22nd in STRANOVA's ratings. Indiana's scoring defense is first in the country and allows 12.4 points a game. Its soft spot is scoring offense, 42nd despite good yardage, which traces to finishing drives. USC's passing offense is sixth, but its run game is 97th against Indiana's fifth ranked run defense, so it has to win through the air.

| Indiana (8 wins, 1 loss) | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas, Sept. 5 | Home | Won 52 to 16 |
| Howard (FCS), Sept. 12 | Home | Won 55 to 0 |
| Western Kentucky, Sept. 19 | Home | Won 38 to 0 |
| Northwestern, Sept. 26 | Home | Won 29 to 23 |
| Rutgers, Oct. 4 | Road | Won 47 to 15 |
| Nebraska, Oct. 10 | Road | Won 20 to 17 |
| Ohio State, Oct. 17 | Home | Lost 15 to 19 |
| Michigan, Oct. 24 | Road | Won 13 to 6 |
| Minnesota, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 23 to 16 |

| USC (7 wins, 2 losses) | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San José State, Aug. 29 | Home | Won 42 to 26 |
| Fresno State, Sept. 5 | Home | Won 39 to 0 |
| Louisiana, Sept. 13 | Home | Won 49 to 30 |
| Rutgers, Sept. 19 | Road | Won 42 to 35 |
| Oregon, Sept. 26 | Home | Lost 27 to 41 |
| Washington, Oct. 3 | Home | Won 25 to 21 |
| Penn State, Oct. 10 | Road | Won 31 to 23 |
| Wisconsin, Oct. 24 | Road | Lost 7 to 24 |
| Ohio State, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 30 to 18 |

The two teams share two opponents. Indiana lost to Ohio State 15 to 19 at home, while USC beat the Buckeyes 30 to 18 at home. Both beat Rutgers on the road, Indiana 47 to 15 and USC 42 to 35. Indiana's FBS opponents average 55th in scoring offense in STRANOVA's ranks, against 63rd for USC's. The Howard game is left out of every average.

## What each unit did against its opponent's norm

The sturdiest test is what a team did compared with what that opponent normally gives up or produces, not counting that game. Indiana's passing offense, measured in net yards per dropback with sacks counted against it, beat the opponent norm in 7 of its 8 FBS games. USC's passing game beat the norm in 8 of 9. USC's run game beat its norm in only 3 of 9. Indiana's defense held 6 of 8 opponents under their norm in the pass game. Indiana has only five home games against FBS opponents and USC only three on the road, so the home and road splits are small samples.

Yards and possession do not decide games. What a team does once it reaches the 20 does, and so do third and fourth down. Red zone figures below cover FBS games only.

| | Indiana | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Red zone trips per game, offense | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Touchdown rate, offense | 59% | 65% |
| Points per trip, offense | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Touchdown rate allowed, defense | 35% | 62% |
| Points per trip allowed, defense | 3.65 | 5.03 |
| Third down conversion, offense | 40% | 50% |
| Third down conversion allowed, defense | 32% | 36% |

USC finishes more trips with touchdowns than Indiana does, but Indiana's defense allows touchdowns on only 35% of opponent trips. STRANOVA's expected red zone points for Saturday are about 19 for Indiana and about 16 for USC. In a bad red zone game, with the touchdown rate at the lower of the two teams' marks, Indiana loses about 0.2 points and USC loses about 2.2.

For each team, STRANOVA finds the three past opponents whose offense and defense profile best matches Saturday's opponent.

| Indiana against teams like USC | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State, Oct. 17 | Home | Lost 15 to 19 |
| Minnesota, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 23 to 16 |
| North Texas, Sept. 5 | Home | Won 52 to 16 |

| USC against teams like Indiana | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 30 to 18 |
| Wisconsin, Oct. 24 | Road | Lost 7 to 24 |
| Oregon, Sept. 26 | Home | Lost 27 to 41 |

Indiana averaged a 13 point win against USC type opponents, all at home. USC averaged a 6.3 point loss against Indiana type opponents, which is about 9.8 at Indiana. Averaging the two views gives Indiana by about 11.4, against 10.4 for the model and 7.5 for the market. Treat it as a sanity check, since it rests on three games per team and different quarterbacks in several of them.

STRANOVA rates teams from results, so it does not adjust for who is under center. Here is what the recent games say, shown as scenarios beside the locked projection.

**Indiana's quarterback.** Indiana replaced Josh Hoover with Grant Wilson at halftime of its 23 to 16 win over Minnesota. Hoover has struggled in recent games and has been playing through an arm injury since the Ohio State game, according to news reports. Indiana had an open week, and coach Curt Cignetti has not named Saturday's starter.

**USC's Trent Mosley.** The receiver missed the Rutgers, Oregon and Washington games with a knee injury. He returned at Penn State on Oct. 10 and played at Wisconsin and against Ohio State. USC then had a bye. With Mosley healthy, USC's offense averaged 11.5 points a game above its opponents' norms, compared with 4.1 in the three games he missed.

**Recent form.** USC's defense over its last four games has allowed 7.1 fewer points than its opponents' norms, against 2.2 for the season. Indiana's offense over its last four is 1.5 points under the norm, against 5.2 above it for the season.

| Scenario | Indiana margin | Indiana win chance |
|---|---|---|
| STRANOVA projection (locked Nov. 10) | 10.4 | 68% |
| Conservative recent form | 5.6 | 60% |
| Central | 3.5 | 56% |
| Aggressive | 0.8 | 51% |

The scenarios weight each team's recent games more heavily than its full season. They do not change the locked STRANOVA projection. Even stacking all the recent trends, Indiana stays a small favorite in every setting.

**The Maiava Line.** USC's offense lives on protecting its quarterback. In its two losses USC gave up 3.5 sacks a game, against 0.9 in its seven wins. It converted 35% of third downs in the losses against 54% in the wins, and scored touchdowns on 43% of red zone trips against 69%. Indiana's defense takes down the passer 3.4 times a game, the best number in this matchup by a wide margin.

| Swing number | What it measures | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| The Maiava Line | USC sacks taken per game in losses against wins | 3.5 against 0.9 |
| Sack Swing | Sacks made minus sacks taken per game | Indiana plus 2.0, USC plus 0.7 |
| Money Down Margin | Third down rate minus the rate allowed | USC plus 14 points, Indiana plus 4 |
| Giveaway Gap | Takeaways minus giveaways per game | Indiana plus 0.38, USC minus 0.22 |
| Cash In Rate | Red zone touchdown rate | USC 65%, Indiana 59% |

| What has to happen | What the season says | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Find the pass game | Net pass yards per dropback beat the opponent norm in 7 of 8 games, and USC's pass defense is 71st | Likely |
| Keep the giveaways down | Lost 0.4 turnovers per win and 2 in the Ohio State loss | Live |
| Keep USC off the third down | USC converts 50%, Indiana's defense allows 34% | Live |
| Finish drives with touchdowns | Indiana scores touchdowns on 59% of trips, below USC's 65% | Hard |
| Pressure Maiava | Indiana makes 3.4 sacks a game, and USC loses when it gives up 3.5 | The whole game |

| What has to happen | What the season says | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Protect Maiava | 0.9 sacks per win and 3.5 per loss | The whole game |
| Finish in the red zone | 69% touchdown rate in wins, 43% in losses, and Indiana allows 35% | Hard |
| Win third down | 54% in wins, 35% in losses, and Indiana allows 34% | Likely |
| Run game reaches its norm | Over its norm in 3 of 9 games, and Indiana's run defense is fifth | Hard |
| Mosley and the pass game stay hot | Pass game over its norm in 8 of 9 games, and Indiana's pass defense is seventh | Live |

Moderate. STRANOVA's walk forward test from 2022 to 2026 picked about 71% of winners with an average miss of about 12.6 points, so read any single margin as a range. The Indiana quarterback situation and USC's recent form widen that range, and the projected total carries low confidence. A 68% pick loses about one time in three.

STRANOVA rates every team from every game it has played. Each result is credited by margin, so a blowout counts for little more than a comfortable win. Home field is credited. Ratings start from conference averages, so a team that has played a weak schedule is not overrated. Last season's finish carries a small starting credit that fades as games accumulate. Every projection is locked before kickoff and graded in public. Projections are statistical estimates for information and entertainment, not wagering advice. Data comes from ESPN public game feeds through Nov. 8, 2026, and market lines are from ESPN, DraftKings and Fox Sports as of Nov. 10. Lines may move.

SPIN's computer rating system has Indiana by 10.4 and a 68% win chance. Some inside SPIN have USC winning outright.

USC at Indiana: The Full STRANOVA Matchup Report

STRANOVA, SPIN's computer rating system, has run the Week 11 FBS schedule. Every pick, win chance and projected score is locked. This piece holds 60 games, and the last three, Utah State at San Diego State, Wyoming at UTEP and Colorado State at Washington State, are in a companion piece. Ratings use results through Week 10, and CFP numbers are from the Nov. 10 rankings.

| Game | Pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois at UCLA (CFP 4) | UCLA | 70% | Illinois 19, UCLA 31 |
| Houston (CFP 14) at Colorado | Houston | 77% | Houston 35, Colorado 18 |
| Duke at Miami (CFP 7) | Miami | 76% | Duke 20, Miami 36 |
| Northwestern at Ohio State (CFP 20) | Ohio State | 71% | Northwestern 20, Ohio State 32 |
| Wake Forest (CFP 13) at SMU | Wake Forest | 55% | Wake Forest 31, SMU 28 |
| Alabama (CFP 3) at Vanderbilt | Alabama | 86% | Alabama 40, Vanderbilt 15 |
| Tennessee (CFP 8) at Texas A&M | Tennessee | 64% | Tennessee 27, Texas A&M 19 |
| USC (CFP 18) at Indiana (CFP 9) | Indiana | 68% | USC 20, Indiana 31 |
| Missouri (CFP 22) at Georgia (CFP 1) | Georgia | 78% | Missouri 18, Georgia 35 |
| Michigan at Oregon (CFP 16) | Oregon | 76% | Michigan 15, Oregon 31 |
| Boston College at Notre Dame (CFP 5) | Notre Dame | 93% | Boston College 9, Notre Dame 43 |
| Baylor at BYU (CFP 10) | BYU | 61% | Baylor 22, BYU 28 |
| Ole Miss (CFP 19) at Oklahoma | Ole Miss | 59% | Ole Miss 28, Oklahoma 23 |
| Oregon State at Boise State (CFP 24) | Boise State | 78% | Oregon State 24, Boise State 41 |
| Florida at Kentucky (CFP 11) | Kentucky | 61% | Florida 26, Kentucky 32 |
| Utah (CFP 2) at Arizona (CFP 23) | Utah | 62% | Utah 30, Arizona 24 |
| Texas (CFP 6) at LSU (CFP 21) | LSU | 54% | Texas 25, LSU 27 |
| Purdue at Iowa (CFP 15) | Iowa | 79% | Purdue 16, Iowa 34 |
| South Carolina (CFP 17) at Arkansas | South Carolina | 67% | South Carolina 31, Arkansas 21 |
| Texas Tech (CFP 12) at Oklahoma State (CFP 25) | Texas Tech | 54% | Texas Tech 34, Oklahoma State 32 |

The closest call among ranked teams is Texas at LSU. STRANOVA gives the home Tigers a 54% chance, a margin of about two points. Texas Tech at Oklahoma State is the same 54% the other way, with the visiting Red Raiders favored. Wake Forest at SMU is a 55% lean toward the Demon Deacons. Across the full slate, Memphis at South Florida is the tightest game on the board at 51%.

## The five games between two ranked teams

USC at Indiana, Missouri at Georgia, Utah at Arizona, Texas at LSU and Texas Tech at Oklahoma State all pair two CFP ranked teams. STRANOVA likes the home side at Indiana (68%) and Georgia (78%) and the visitor at Utah (62%). Michigan at Oregon is not a ranked pairing, but the model gives the Ducks a 76% chance at home.

Boston College at Notre Dame is the biggest mismatch of the week at 93% for the Fighting Irish. Alabama at Vanderbilt is next among the ranked games at 86%.

STRANOVA rates every team from its full season of results, adjusting for who each team played and how lopsided the scores were. A win chance is the model's read on a single game. It is not a guarantee, and a 70% pick loses about three times in ten. Projected scores split the model's margin across a total built from each team's scoring pace, and the totals carry less confidence than the picks. Not for wagering.

SPIN's computer rating system gives a pick, a win chance and a projected score for every FBS game this week

STRANOVA Picks Week 11 of College Football: 60 FBS Games, With Every CFP Ranked Matchup

STRANOVA matchup predictor cover for the Utah 6A, 5A and 4A football semifinals, showing the twelve teams' school logos

STRANOVA, SPIN's computer rating system, has run all six Utah semifinals in 6A, 5A and 4A. Every game is on a neutral field, so there is no home edge in the math. The cards below show each win chance, the projected score and where the model could miss. The ratings use results through Nov. 8.

STRANOVA cover card for the Utah semifinals with all six matchups and school logos

| Class | Game | STRANOVA win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | Herriman vs Skyridge | Skyridge 77%, Herriman 23% | Skyridge 34, Herriman 21 |
| 6A | Mountain Ridge vs Corner Canyon | Mountain Ridge 59%, Corner Canyon 41% | Mountain Ridge 31, Corner Canyon 27 |
| 5A | West vs Bountiful | West 68%, Bountiful 32% | West 31, Bountiful 22 |
| 5A | Orem vs Woods Cross | Orem 96%, Woods Cross 4% | Orem 46, Woods Cross 13 |
| 4A | Ridgeline vs Crimson Cliffs | Ridgeline 72%, Crimson Cliffs 28% | Ridgeline 31, Crimson Cliffs 20 |
| 4A | Hurricane vs Skyline | Hurricane 65%, Skyline 35% | Hurricane 29, Skyline 22 |

Mountain Ridge against Corner Canyon is the tightest game STRANOVA ran. The model gives the unbeaten Sentinels a 59% chance over the Chargers. Kickoff is Thursday, Nov. 12, at 2:30 PM at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Earlier that day, Skyridge is the model's pick over Herriman at 11:00 AM.

STRANOVA matchup card for the 6A semifinal Herriman vs Skyridge

STRANOVA matchup card for the 6A semifinal Mountain Ridge vs Corner Canyon

Orem against Woods Cross is the widest gap in the set, 96% to 4%. Woods Cross reached the semifinals at 6-6 after entering the playoffs 4-6, which the rating reflects. West over Bountiful is a 68% call. Orem and Woods Cross kick off Friday, Nov. 13, at 2:30 PM.

STRANOVA matchup card for the 5A semifinal West vs Bountiful

STRANOVA matchup card for the 5A semifinal Orem vs Woods Cross

In 4A, STRANOVA picks Ridgeline over Crimson Cliffs at 72% and Hurricane over Skyline at 65%.

STRANOVA matchup card for the 4A semifinal Ridgeline vs Crimson Cliffs

STRANOVA matchup card for the 4A semifinal Hurricane vs Skyline

STRANOVA rates every team from its full season of results, adjusting for who each team played and how lopsided the scores were. A win chance is the model's read on a single game. It is not a guarantee, and a 77% pick loses about one time in four. Projected scores come from each team's scoring pace and the rating gap, and they have missed by about 7 points a team on this season's Utah games. Not for wagering.

STRANOVA Picks Week 11 of College Football: Late Saturday Night Games

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Game	Pick	Win chance	Projected score
Utah State at San Diego State	Utah State	57%	Utah State 27, San Diego State 22
Wyoming at UTEP	Wyoming	71%	Wyoming 29, UTEP 17
Colorado State at Washington State	Washington State	58%	Colorado State 29, Washington State 34