STRANOVA, SPIN's computer rating system, has run the Week 11 FBS schedule. Every pick, win chance and projected score is locked. This piece holds 60 games, and the last three, Utah State at San Diego State, Wyoming at UTEP and Colorado State at Washington State, are in a companion piece. Ratings use results through Week 10, and CFP numbers are from the Nov. 10 rankings.
The CFP ranked games
| Game | Pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois at UCLA (CFP 4) | UCLA | 70% | Illinois 19, UCLA 31 |
| Houston (CFP 14) at Colorado | Houston | 77% | Houston 35, Colorado 18 |
| Duke at Miami (CFP 7) | Miami | 76% | Duke 20, Miami 36 |
| Northwestern at Ohio State (CFP 20) | Ohio State | 71% | Northwestern 20, Ohio State 32 |
| Wake Forest (CFP 13) at SMU | Wake Forest | 55% | Wake Forest 31, SMU 28 |
| Alabama (CFP 3) at Vanderbilt | Alabama | 86% | Alabama 40, Vanderbilt 15 |
| Tennessee (CFP 8) at Texas A&M | Tennessee | 64% | Tennessee 27, Texas A&M 19 |
| USC (CFP 18) at Indiana (CFP 9) | Indiana | 68% | USC 20, Indiana 31 |
| Missouri (CFP 22) at Georgia (CFP 1) | Georgia | 78% | Missouri 18, Georgia 35 |
| Michigan at Oregon (CFP 16) | Oregon | 76% | Michigan 15, Oregon 31 |
| Boston College at Notre Dame (CFP 5) | Notre Dame | 93% | Boston College 9, Notre Dame 43 |
| Baylor at BYU (CFP 10) | BYU | 61% | Baylor 22, BYU 28 |
| Ole Miss (CFP 19) at Oklahoma | Ole Miss | 59% | Ole Miss 28, Oklahoma 23 |
| Oregon State at Boise State (CFP 24) | Boise State | 78% | Oregon State 24, Boise State 41 |
| Florida at Kentucky (CFP 11) | Kentucky | 61% | Florida 26, Kentucky 32 |
| Utah (CFP 2) at Arizona (CFP 23) | Utah | 62% | Utah 30, Arizona 24 |
| Texas (CFP 6) at LSU (CFP 21) | LSU | 54% | Texas 25, LSU 27 |
| Purdue at Iowa (CFP 15) | Iowa | 79% | Purdue 16, Iowa 34 |
| South Carolina (CFP 17) at Arkansas | South Carolina | 67% | South Carolina 31, Arkansas 21 |
| Texas Tech (CFP 12) at Oklahoma State (CFP 25) | Texas Tech | 54% | Texas Tech 34, Oklahoma State 32 |
Where the model sees a coin flip
The closest call among ranked teams is Texas at LSU. STRANOVA gives the home Tigers a 54% chance, a margin of about two points. Texas Tech at Oklahoma State is the same 54% the other way, with the visiting Red Raiders favored. Wake Forest at SMU is a 55% lean toward the Demon Deacons. Across the full slate, Memphis at South Florida is the tightest game on the board at 51%.
The five games between two ranked teams
USC at Indiana, Missouri at Georgia, Utah at Arizona, Texas at LSU and Texas Tech at Oklahoma State all pair two CFP ranked teams. STRANOVA likes the home side at Indiana (68%) and Georgia (78%) and the visitor at Utah (62%). Michigan at Oregon is not a ranked pairing, but the model gives the Ducks a 76% chance at home.
The widest gap
Boston College at Notre Dame is the biggest mismatch of the week at 93% for the Fighting Irish. Alabama at Vanderbilt is next among the ranked games at 86%.
How to read it
STRANOVA rates every team from its full season of results, adjusting for who each team played and how lopsided the scores were. A win chance is the model's read on a single game. It is not a guarantee, and a 70% pick loses about three times in ten. Projected scores split the model's margin across a total built from each team's scoring pace, and the totals carry less confidence than the picks. Not for wagering.
