SPIN results card showing DeSoto 72, North Mesquite 6, the final score of their high school football game on Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026.

DeSoto beat North Mesquite 72-6 on Thursday night at Eagle Stadium.

Every final from Thursday is on the SPIN scoreboard.

Max Fielder

DeSoto (DeSoto, TX) beat North Mesquite (Mesquite, TX) 72-6 on Thursday, Nov. 12.

DeSoto Beats North Mesquite 72-6

Corner Canyon's No. 7 and No. 13 celebrate in the end zone as the Corner Canyon student section cheers behind them at Rice-Eccles Stadium during the Utah 6A football semifinal against Mountain Ridge, November 12, 2026.

**SALT LAKE CITY, Rice-Eccles Stadium:** Mountain Ridge went and got 536 yards, 30 first downs and 93 plays on Thursday night. It also got a 34-28 loss, which is what happens when you win the box score and the other team had the answer key.

Corner Canyon (11-2), the three-time defending 6A champion, picked off Mountain Ridge (12-1) seven times, turned those takeaways into 24 points and survived a final drive that ended the only way a Hollywood script would allow: a last pass from around the 30 sailing out the back of the end zone as the clock hit zero. The champs will play Skyridge for the state title.

*SPIN playoff coverage is presented by D1 Training.*

## The box score that makes no sense

| | Corner Canyon | Mountain Ridge |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 263 | 536 |
| Plays | 54 | 93 |
| First downs | 11 | 30 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 7 |
| Points off turnovers | 24 | 7 |
| **Final** | **34** | **28** |

If you only read the left-hand column of a stat sheet, Mountain Ridge won this by a mile. Football, thankfully, is not graded on volume.

## A signature win for Casey Sutera

This one belongs to first-year head coach Casey Sutera, and it deserves to be framed. He lost a mountain of seniors from last year's champions and is now one win from a state title in his first season. That is a crazy good coaching job if they finish it.

More than that, look at how they did it. Mountain Ridge has the best offense in the state by a wide margin, and Sutera answered it like a defensive minded head coach you would want in your corner: scout it to death, keep it in front of you, win the turnover battle and do just enough on offense to hang on. Corner Canyon looked a step ahead all night. The right personnel were on the field at the right times, the defense seemed to know the down and distance before the huddle broke, and it read like a team that had watched a lot of tape and believed every frame of it.

Here is the number that tells you the game plan worked: Mountain Ridge came into this game having thrown seven interceptions all season. Corner Canyon matched that total in one night. That is not luck. That is a team that opened a book and found the plot.

And now the script writes itself. The title game is Skyridge, the team that beat Corner Canyon 37-27 earlier this season. If you wanted a get-back game with a trophy attached, you got one.

## SPIN player of the game: Josh Harris

My player of the game is Corner Canyon's Josh Harris, No. 21, a senior cornerback who also punts, which is the football equivalent of a guy who works the register and also fixes the freezer. The official statistics give him two interceptions, six tackles (four solo) and a pass breakup. He punted six times for 289 yards, a 48.2 average with a long of 68 and three inside the 20. He also saved a bad snap on a punt with a kick that went for a touchback, returned a punt 11 yards and added 34 yards on three kickoff returns.

That is a whole Swiss Army knife, and he used every blade.

## The first half: three possessions, three interceptions

Mountain Ridge could not have scripted a worse start. Its quarterback was intercepted on the first play of the game, and Corner Canyon took over and drove to the 4-yard line. On fourth and 1 inside the 1, the Corner Canyon quarterback appeared to score off the right side, but a timeout had been called before the snap, so the touchdown did not count. Corner Canyon simply ran it again, and Levi Hines scored from a yard out around the right side. Carson Burnett's extra point made it 7-0 with 8:40 left in the first.

The second Mountain Ridge possession ended in another interception, a deep ball picked off by Lakin Abilla and returned to the Mountain Ridge 15. Jackson Carruth walked in from the 1 for a 14-0 lead with 6:33 left. The third possession ended in a third interception. Three possessions, three picks. At that point the Mountain Ridge offense was less a machine and more a vending machine that only dispensed the other team's snacks.

Corner Canyon's drive stalled on fourth and 3 at the 10 early in the second quarter, and Burnett kicked a 27-yard field goal. On that drive Corner Canyon had one-on-one coverage in the end zone and its quarterback threw a perfect ball that was dropped. A touchdown there makes it 21-0. It was 17-0 with 10:20 left in the half instead.

Then the best offense in the state showed up. Corner Canyon turned the ball over on a sack-fumble, Mountain Ridge took over around the Corner Canyon 42, and on the next play its quarterback got out of the pocket and hit Jordan Claassen on an over route for a 42-yard touchdown. Will O'Neil's kick made it 17-7 with 6:52 left in the half.

Mountain Ridge got the ball at its own 9 with 2:00 left in the half, out of timeouts. After a swing pass and a run, it took a sack, which put it in third and 3 at its own 16. A short in-breaking route converted it, and Mountain Ridge went to hurry-up mode. Corner Canyon had trouble getting lined up and burned two timeouts. Then came a 15-yard penalty for hitting a defenseless receiver, which in my view was a bad call because the hit was low and not to the head or neck. The flag put the ball at the 9, and Jaxon Hunt scored on a 9-yard run with 30 seconds left to finish a 10-play, 91-yard drive that ate 1:30. The extra point made it 17-14 at the half, and the night had officially become a movie.

## Third quarter: two bombs and an easy pick

Corner Canyon got the ball first in the second half. Harris fielded the kickoff and was tackled at about the Corner Canyon 17. Corner Canyon came out in 13 personnel, three tight ends, and Mountain Ridge again played a seven man box. That was the whole game in one picture: if Corner Canyon could not win one on one on the outside, it was not going to beat Mountain Ridge. On the first throw of the half it won one.

Then Corner Canyon hit two big deep passes in a row, covering about 80 yards of field, with just the right amount of touch on both. They were as impressive as any throws we have seen from its quarterback this season. That put the ball at the Mountain Ridge 10, and Corner Canyon called a timeout. It came up empty on its next shot, and Mountain Ridge called a timeout facing third and goal. Then Jaxon Pehrson threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Beckam Coon, a very physical route and a really good throw. The extra point was good, and Corner Canyon led 24-14 with 9:26 left in the quarter.

Mountain Ridge answered with its best drive since the two minute drill. It was in rhythm, with a speed option for 13 yards by Tyson Dunn on a good pitch from Hunt, then a quick out for another 13. That put the ball at the Corner Canyon 12, and Ryce Palepoi sniffed out the same option play on the next down.

Then Mountain Ridge tried a trick play, a reverse that was supposed to turn into a pass. The ball carrier got out of two tackles and stayed with the pass, but Josh Harris was waiting in the end zone for it. In my view it was probably the easiest interception of his life. He took a knee for a touchback and presumably asked for a receipt.

Corner Canyon could not do anything with it. Mountain Ridge sent four rushers on third and 15, and a good play call from the defense kept Corner Canyon from getting the first down. Harris punted, and Mountain Ridge took over around its own 29, picked up a first down on a run and then took a holding penalty that left it at first and 20 from its own 42.

The drive ended in another interception. Lakin Abilla, who also had the first half pick, baited a throw and took it for his second of the game. Corner Canyon took over with 2:34 left in the quarter and stuck with the ground game, then punted. The snap on the punt was bad, but Harris handled it, got the kick off to the opposite side of the field and it went for a touchback. Mountain Ridge's drive from its own 20 went nowhere, and it had second and 12 from its own 18 to start the fourth.

## Fourth quarter: the longest 12 minutes in Salt Lake

Mountain Ridge opened the fourth at second and 12 from its own 18 and went to hurry-up mode. It hit a pass at about the Corner Canyon 47 on a free play after Corner Canyon had 12 men on the field, and Hunt got about 18 yards out of it. High school football has no college style substitution rule, so a team can go fast, and Mountain Ridge took advantage of that a couple of times.

This was a must have drive, and Hunt made good decisions. On an RPO against a heavy box he threw outside, and he followed it with a swing pass and a screen for a first down. Corner Canyon sent a blitz and ate up one screen. Then Lakin Abilla made a great read, jumped a route and nearly had a third interception.

On the next down Corner Canyon showed a pressure look and bailed out of it, and Mountain Ridge called a quarterback draw at the perfect time. Hunt ran through a tackle and into the end zone on a 25-yard touchdown run, and the extra point made it 24-21 with 9:50 left. The Corner Canyon lead was suddenly a rumor.

Then the game turned twice in a hurry. Corner Canyon fumbled, and Mountain Ridge's Boston Kojima caused it and recovered it, but it never got anywhere. On an RPO, a Mountain Ridge pass was batted at the line by Corner Canyon's Sam Ord and intercepted by Brody Allred, who took it 46 yards the other way for a touchdown. Corner Canyon led 31-21 with 9:21 left. Allred went from reading the quarterback's eyes to reading the end zone.

Mountain Ridge came back with a drive up the middle of the field. Hunt hit Claassen on a 15-yard dig route and then another for 16, big throws made in time. A false start and an offensive pass interference penalty put Mountain Ridge at first and 25 from its own 31, and it later faced fourth and 8 near midfield and went for it. The pass was intercepted by Isaac Otuafi, who returned it along the sideline to the Mountain Ridge 7. Corner Canyon took a holding penalty and a sack and faced fourth and 12, and Burnett kicked a perfect 29-yard field goal for 34-21 with 5:33 left. In my view that was the big stop for Mountain Ridge, because two touchdowns and two extra points would tie it.

That is exactly what it threatened to do. Mountain Ridge got the drive it needed, starting with 5:33 left. Hunt escaped pressure and threw back across his body for a first down, then ran for 8. Corner Canyon had 12 men on the field on a free play, and Hunt threw deep to Tytan Dejong, who made a great catch at the 39 for about 20 yards. Mountain Ridge was quickly down to about the 14, and then it scored on an easy pitch and catch, a 14-yard touchdown pass to Dejong. In my view Corner Canyon played soft coverage on that whole drive, keeping everything in front of it. The extra point made it 34-28 with 3:42 left.

## The final drive

Corner Canyon got a straight kickoff, took over at its own 20 and ran the ball. A third and 6 run for a first down forced Mountain Ridge to burn timeouts. Mountain Ridge got its stop, Corner Canyon let the clock run and Josh Harris punted on a clean snap, and the ball went out of bounds at the 21.

The final drive started with 1:20 left, with the ball at the Mountain Ridge 21. Mountain Ridge had no timeouts, and a sack kept the clock running. Then a cramp stopped the clock, which did more for Mountain Ridge than a timeout would have. It reached second and 1 from around the 47. Corner Canyon had a chance at a game clinching interception that did not come down, and the drive went to 24 seconds, then 10, then a pass over the middle that nearly became a great catch. Dejong made a big catch that almost landed inbounds, but he got out of bounds with four seconds left. The last play was a long throw from around the 30 into the end zone. It went out. The official drive chart has the possession at nine plays and 49 yards, and zero points. Roll credits.

## Scoring summary

| Quarter | Corner Canyon | Mountain Ridge |
|---|---|---|
| First | 14 | 0 |
| Second | 3 | 14 |
| Third | 7 | 0 |
| Fourth | 10 | 14 |
| **Final** | **34** | **28** |

- First quarter, 8:40: Levi Hines 1-yard run, Carson Burnett kick. Corner Canyon 7, Mountain Ridge 0.
- First quarter, 6:33: Jackson Carruth 1-yard run, Burnett kick. Corner Canyon 14, Mountain Ridge 0.
- Second quarter, 10:20: Burnett 27-yard field goal. Corner Canyon 17, Mountain Ridge 0.
- Second quarter, 6:52: Jordan Claassen 42-yard pass from Jaxon Hunt, Will O'Neil kick. Corner Canyon 17, Mountain Ridge 7.
- Second quarter, 0:30: Hunt 9-yard run, O'Neil kick. Corner Canyon 17, Mountain Ridge 14.
- Third quarter, 9:26: Coon 11-yard pass from Jaxon Pehrson, Burnett kick. Corner Canyon 24, Mountain Ridge 14.
- Fourth quarter, 9:50: Hunt 25-yard run, O'Neil kick. Corner Canyon 24, Mountain Ridge 21.
- Fourth quarter, 9:21: Allred 46-yard interception return, Burnett kick. Corner Canyon 31, Mountain Ridge 21.
- Fourth quarter, 5:33: Burnett 29-yard field goal. Corner Canyon 34, Mountain Ridge 21.
- Fourth quarter, 3:42: Tytan Dejong 14-yard pass from Hunt, O'Neil kick. Corner Canyon 34, Mountain Ridge 28.

## Final team numbers

From the official final statistics.

| | Corner Canyon | Mountain Ridge |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 263 yards, 54 plays | 536 yards, 93 plays |
| Rushing (net) | 40 carries, 109 yards | 34 carries, 178 yards |
| Passing | 8 of 14, 154 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT | 35 of 59, 358 yards, 2 TD, 7 INT |
| First downs | 11 | 30 |
| Third downs | 4 of 13 | 9 of 18 |
| Fourth downs | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
| Red zone | 5 for 5 (3 TD, 2 FG) | 2 for 3 (2 TD) |
| Sacks by | 3 for 22 yards | 3 for 19 yards |
| Penalties | 5 for 45 yards | 10 for 95 yards |
| Possession | 23:05 | 24:55 |
| Points off turnovers | 24 | 7 |

Individual leaders: Corner Canyon's Jackson Carruth rushed 28 times for 100 yards and a touchdown. Coon caught four passes for 85 yards and a score. Mountain Ridge's Tytan Dejong caught 11 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown, and Tyson Dunn rushed 17 times for 99 yards. Corner Canyon's Isaac Otuafi returned an interception 63 yards, and No. 6 W. Tenney led the Corner Canyon defense with 14 tackles.

## Editorial note from the SPIN desk

*This is opinion, not reporting, and it was written at halftime.* The SPIN desk thought Corner Canyon was in trouble. It had its chance to put Mountain Ridge away early, up 17-0 with the dropped touchdown that would have made it 21-0, and it did not do it. Mountain Ridge is too good a team to give that chance to. It had weathered the storm, and the desk expected Mountain Ridge to win this game.

The desk would like the record to show that Corner Canyon and Casey Sutera read that note and responded with seven interceptions.

Mountain Ridge piled up 536 yards, ran 93 plays and still lost 34-28. The three-time defending champs head to the 6A title game on the strength of a defense that knew exactly what was coming. Max Fielder was at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Corner Canyon Takes the Ball Away Seven Times, and Casey Sutera Gets the Signature Win of His First Season

Skyridge's No. 14 carries the ball into the end zone as fans cheer at Rice-Eccles Stadium during the Utah 6A football semifinal against Herriman, November 12, 2026.

**SALT LAKE CITY, Rice-Eccles Stadium:** Three years. That's how long Skyridge has waited to get back to a 6A championship game, and for most of Thursday night it looked like the Falcons were going to leave this building the way they left it the last two Novembers. Quietly. Heartbroken. Staring at a scoreboard like it owed them money.

Instead, the top seed pulled a full Houdini. Skyridge came back from 10 down in the third quarter, came back from 10 down again in the fourth and beat No. 4 Herriman 35-34. Jagger Fountaine faked a pitch and scored from 2 yards out with 2:04 left. Herriman ripped the kickoff back to the Skyridge 20 and lined up for a 32-yard field goal with 1:19 to play. Wide right. Skyridge kneeled it out and is going to the title game.

*SPIN playoff coverage is presented by D1 Training.*

| Moment | Score |
|---|---|
| End of the first quarter | Skyridge 14, Herriman 7 |
| Halftime | Herriman 21, Skyridge 14 |
| Late in the third | Herriman 24, Skyridge 14 |
| 1:22 left in the third | Herriman 24, Skyridge 21 |
| First play of the fourth | Herriman 31, Skyridge 21 |
| About 10:00 left | Herriman 31, Skyridge 28 |
| 6:26 left | Herriman 34, Skyridge 28 |
| 2:04 left | **Skyridge 35, Herriman 34** |

Keep that table handy, because you will want to show it to someone who missed this game.

## Groundhog Day at Rice-Eccles

Skyridge won the first state title in school history in 2022. It went back to the final in 2023 and lost 41-27 to Corner Canyon. Then the program woke up in the same stadium, in the same round, and Lone Peak was waiting there like Bill Murray's insurance guy. Lone Peak beat the Falcons in this exact semifinal at this exact venue, 28-21 in 2024 and 13-7 last November.

You can only tell a team "next year" so many times. Skyridge was down to its last one.

## A first half with no brakes

Herriman's quarterback scrambled right and scored at the pylon for a 7-0 lead. Skyridge answered with a long touchdown drive, then blocked a Herriman punt and cashed it from the short field. 14-7 Falcons after one, and this thing was already moving like a car chase.

Then the Mustangs got off the mat. A long, punishing ground drive tied it at 14. A Skyridge kickoff return ended in a fumble under a hit, Herriman jumped on it and scored a few plays later, and it was 21-14 Herriman at the break. Skyridge had one more swing, driving into the red zone, but its field goal try on the last play of the half hit the upright. Of course it did. That's how the day was going.

## The second half nearly got ugly

In the third quarter, Skyridge drove down to about the Herriman 5, then fumbled on a missed exchange at the mesh point. A drive that should have flipped the game instead gave Herriman the ball, and the Mustangs ground out 13 plays for a 19-yard field goal and a 24-14 lead.

This is where a lot of teams fold like a lawn chair. Skyridge hit the gas instead. Fountaine took the Falcons 80 yards in 49 seconds, finishing with a 57-yard touchdown pass to Trey Harper on a rollout right, and just like that it was 24-21.

Herriman did not blink. On the first play of the fourth quarter, running back Filisi Filipe hit it up the middle and kept going for 61 yards and a touchdown. 31-21. Somewhere in the stands a Skyridge parent was breathing into a paper bag.

## Fountaine and the escape act

Then came the play of the day. Fountaine got swallowed by pressure on what looked like a certain sack, wriggled free like Houdini's understudy, kept his eyes downfield and hit Malosi Shepard for a 29-yard touchdown. 31-28 with about 10 minutes left, and the whole stadium suddenly had opinions.

Herriman answered with a field goal, 34-28, with 6:26 to go, after Skyridge stopped it on third and 1 at the 7 and held it to three. Skyridge's answer was a 12-play drive that ended with Fountaine faking the pitch, tucking it and strolling in from 2 yards out. 35-34. The Falcons' first lead since the first quarter.

Skyridge coach Justin Hemm called his quarterback an "ultimate competitor" to the Deseret News. Fountaine finished 20 of 34 for 367 yards and two touchdown passes, and ran for two more scores, according to the Deseret News. That is a video game stat line, and he put it up in a playoff game.

## Herriman did everything but win

Give the Mustangs their flowers. Through three quarters, Herriman's offensive line was winning up front, the Mustangs kept running it, and they got pressure on the quarterback, at times sending seven off the right edge. This felt like an upset in the making. It almost was.

Filipe carried 40 times for 245 yards and two touchdowns, and Herriman put up 449 total yards, per the Deseret News. The third and 1 stop near the goal line left Herriman kicking a field goal instead of scoring a touchdown. That was the margin, and Herriman will think about that one all winter.

Now the other side of the argument: the kick missed, so Skyridge got lucky, right? Sure, a little. But eight of Skyridge's 11 wins this season have come by one possession, per the Deseret News. That is not luck. That is a lifestyle.

## Corner Canyon is next

Skyridge's only loss this season was the Aug. 13 opener at Mountain Ridge, 41-26. In the other semifinal Thursday, Corner Canyon beat Mountain Ridge 34-28, so the Falcons get the three-time defending champions for the title. Skyridge already beat Corner Canyon 37-27 earlier this season, and Corner Canyon will be looking to get that one back. Sequel season, anyone?

Skyridge spent two Novembers hearing "next year." Next year showed up on Thursday. It arrived with an 80-yard drive, a faked pitch and a kick that drifted the wrong way for the other guys.

*SPIN playoff coverage is presented by D1 Training, Official Playoff Partner.*

Jagger Fountaine faked a pitch with 2:04 left, Herriman's 32-yard field goal drifted wide right, and the Falcons are going to their first state title game since 2023.

Down 10 Twice, Skyridge Said No and Escaped Herriman 35-34 for a Spot in the 6A Final

STRANOVA matchup graphic for USC at Indiana, Saturday Nov. 14, 2026, with Indiana projected by 10.4 and a 68 percent win probability.

STRANOVA, SPIN's computer rating system, projects Indiana 31, USC 20 on Saturday, Nov. 14 at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on CBS. The model's margin is 10.4 points and Indiana's win chance is 68%. Indiana is No. 9 and USC is No. 18 in the CFP rankings released Nov. 10.

**Locked Nov. 10.** STRANOVA's projection for this game was locked on Tuesday, Nov. 10 at 2:24 PM MT, days before kickoff, and it has not changed since. Whatever happens in the betting market or the news this week, the numbers in this report stay as they were locked, so you can grade them after the game.

**A note on the ranks in this report.** Every rank below, shown as a STRANOVA rank, is SPIN's own rating of all 138 FBS teams, built from this season's results. It is not the CFP ranking, the AP poll or any other poll, so a team's STRANOVA rank and its CFP number can differ.

**Not everyone at SPIN agrees with the model.** Some members of SPIN leadership have USC winning outright. The report below shows why the game is closer than the margin suggests.

| Item | Market | STRANOVA |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana by 7.5 (Fox shows 6.5) | Indiana by 10.4 |
| Win chance | About 71% Indiana, from a money line of minus 285 Indiana and plus 230 USC | 68% Indiana |
| Total | 49.5 | About 51 (Indiana 31, USC 20) |

STRANOVA is higher than the market on the margin and a little lower on win chance. The market lines were pulled on Nov. 10 and may move before kickoff, so check your sportsbook. STRANOVA did not use the lines and will not move with them.

Each unit is ranked among 138 FBS teams after adjusting for the quality of the offenses and defenses it faced. A lower number is better.

| Unit | Indiana STRANOVA rank | USC STRANOVA rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring offense | 42 | 17 | USC |
| Rushing offense | 20 | 97 | Indiana |
| Passing offense | 14 | 6 | Even |
| Scoring defense | 1 | 47 | Indiana |
| Rush defense | 5 | 47 | Indiana |
| Pass defense | 7 | 71 | Indiana |

Overall, Indiana is ninth and USC is 22nd in STRANOVA's ratings. Indiana's scoring defense is first in the country and allows 12.4 points a game. Its soft spot is scoring offense, 42nd despite good yardage, which traces to finishing drives. USC's passing offense is sixth, but its run game is 97th against Indiana's fifth ranked run defense, so it has to win through the air.

| Indiana (8 wins, 1 loss) | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas, Sept. 5 | Home | Won 52 to 16 |
| Howard (FCS), Sept. 12 | Home | Won 55 to 0 |
| Western Kentucky, Sept. 19 | Home | Won 38 to 0 |
| Northwestern, Sept. 26 | Home | Won 29 to 23 |
| Rutgers, Oct. 4 | Road | Won 47 to 15 |
| Nebraska, Oct. 10 | Road | Won 20 to 17 |
| Ohio State, Oct. 17 | Home | Lost 15 to 19 |
| Michigan, Oct. 24 | Road | Won 13 to 6 |
| Minnesota, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 23 to 16 |

| USC (7 wins, 2 losses) | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San José State, Aug. 29 | Home | Won 42 to 26 |
| Fresno State, Sept. 5 | Home | Won 39 to 0 |
| Louisiana, Sept. 13 | Home | Won 49 to 30 |
| Rutgers, Sept. 19 | Road | Won 42 to 35 |
| Oregon, Sept. 26 | Home | Lost 27 to 41 |
| Washington, Oct. 3 | Home | Won 25 to 21 |
| Penn State, Oct. 10 | Road | Won 31 to 23 |
| Wisconsin, Oct. 24 | Road | Lost 7 to 24 |
| Ohio State, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 30 to 18 |

The two teams share two opponents. Indiana lost to Ohio State 15 to 19 at home, while USC beat the Buckeyes 30 to 18 at home. Both beat Rutgers on the road, Indiana 47 to 15 and USC 42 to 35. Indiana's FBS opponents average 55th in scoring offense in STRANOVA's ranks, against 63rd for USC's. The Howard game is left out of every average.

## What each unit did against its opponent's norm

The sturdiest test is what a team did compared with what that opponent normally gives up or produces, not counting that game. Indiana's passing offense, measured in net yards per dropback with sacks counted against it, beat the opponent norm in 7 of its 8 FBS games. USC's passing game beat the norm in 8 of 9. USC's run game beat its norm in only 3 of 9. Indiana's defense held 6 of 8 opponents under their norm in the pass game. Indiana has only five home games against FBS opponents and USC only three on the road, so the home and road splits are small samples.

Yards and possession do not decide games. What a team does once it reaches the 20 does, and so do third and fourth down. Red zone figures below cover FBS games only.

| | Indiana | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Red zone trips per game, offense | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Touchdown rate, offense | 59% | 65% |
| Points per trip, offense | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Touchdown rate allowed, defense | 35% | 62% |
| Points per trip allowed, defense | 3.65 | 5.03 |
| Third down conversion, offense | 40% | 50% |
| Third down conversion allowed, defense | 32% | 36% |

USC finishes more trips with touchdowns than Indiana does, but Indiana's defense allows touchdowns on only 35% of opponent trips. STRANOVA's expected red zone points for Saturday are about 19 for Indiana and about 16 for USC. In a bad red zone game, with the touchdown rate at the lower of the two teams' marks, Indiana loses about 0.2 points and USC loses about 2.2.

For each team, STRANOVA finds the three past opponents whose offense and defense profile best matches Saturday's opponent.

| Indiana against teams like USC | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State, Oct. 17 | Home | Lost 15 to 19 |
| Minnesota, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 23 to 16 |
| North Texas, Sept. 5 | Home | Won 52 to 16 |

| USC against teams like Indiana | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State, Oct. 31 | Home | Won 30 to 18 |
| Wisconsin, Oct. 24 | Road | Lost 7 to 24 |
| Oregon, Sept. 26 | Home | Lost 27 to 41 |

Indiana averaged a 13 point win against USC type opponents, all at home. USC averaged a 6.3 point loss against Indiana type opponents, which is about 9.8 at Indiana. Averaging the two views gives Indiana by about 11.4, against 10.4 for the model and 7.5 for the market. Treat it as a sanity check, since it rests on three games per team and different quarterbacks in several of them.

STRANOVA rates teams from results, so it does not adjust for who is under center. Here is what the recent games say, shown as scenarios beside the locked projection.

**Indiana's quarterback.** Indiana replaced Josh Hoover with Grant Wilson at halftime of its 23 to 16 win over Minnesota. Hoover has struggled in recent games and has been playing through an arm injury since the Ohio State game, according to news reports. Indiana had an open week, and coach Curt Cignetti has not named Saturday's starter.

**USC's Trent Mosley.** The receiver missed the Rutgers, Oregon and Washington games with a knee injury. He returned at Penn State on Oct. 10 and played at Wisconsin and against Ohio State. USC then had a bye. With Mosley healthy, USC's offense averaged 11.5 points a game above its opponents' norms, compared with 4.1 in the three games he missed.

**Recent form.** USC's defense over its last four games has allowed 7.1 fewer points than its opponents' norms, against 2.2 for the season. Indiana's offense over its last four is 1.5 points under the norm, against 5.2 above it for the season.

| Scenario | Indiana margin | Indiana win chance |
|---|---|---|
| STRANOVA projection (locked Nov. 10) | 10.4 | 68% |
| Conservative recent form | 5.6 | 60% |
| Central | 3.5 | 56% |
| Aggressive | 0.8 | 51% |

The scenarios weight each team's recent games more heavily than its full season. They do not change the locked STRANOVA projection. Even stacking all the recent trends, Indiana stays a small favorite in every setting.

**The Maiava Line.** USC's offense lives on protecting its quarterback. In its two losses USC gave up 3.5 sacks a game, against 0.9 in its seven wins. It converted 35% of third downs in the losses against 54% in the wins, and scored touchdowns on 43% of red zone trips against 69%. Indiana's defense takes down the passer 3.4 times a game, the best number in this matchup by a wide margin.

| Swing number | What it measures | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| The Maiava Line | USC sacks taken per game in losses against wins | 3.5 against 0.9 |
| Sack Swing | Sacks made minus sacks taken per game | Indiana plus 2.0, USC plus 0.7 |
| Money Down Margin | Third down rate minus the rate allowed | USC plus 14 points, Indiana plus 4 |
| Giveaway Gap | Takeaways minus giveaways per game | Indiana plus 0.38, USC minus 0.22 |
| Cash In Rate | Red zone touchdown rate | USC 65%, Indiana 59% |

| What has to happen | What the season says | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Find the pass game | Net pass yards per dropback beat the opponent norm in 7 of 8 games, and USC's pass defense is 71st | Likely |
| Keep the giveaways down | Lost 0.4 turnovers per win and 2 in the Ohio State loss | Live |
| Keep USC off the third down | USC converts 50%, Indiana's defense allows 34% | Live |
| Finish drives with touchdowns | Indiana scores touchdowns on 59% of trips, below USC's 65% | Hard |
| Pressure Maiava | Indiana makes 3.4 sacks a game, and USC loses when it gives up 3.5 | The whole game |

| What has to happen | What the season says | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Protect Maiava | 0.9 sacks per win and 3.5 per loss | The whole game |
| Finish in the red zone | 69% touchdown rate in wins, 43% in losses, and Indiana allows 35% | Hard |
| Win third down | 54% in wins, 35% in losses, and Indiana allows 34% | Likely |
| Run game reaches its norm | Over its norm in 3 of 9 games, and Indiana's run defense is fifth | Hard |
| Mosley and the pass game stay hot | Pass game over its norm in 8 of 9 games, and Indiana's pass defense is seventh | Live |

Moderate. STRANOVA's walk forward test from 2022 to 2026 picked about 71% of winners with an average miss of about 12.6 points, so read any single margin as a range. The Indiana quarterback situation and USC's recent form widen that range, and the projected total carries low confidence. A 68% pick loses about one time in three.

STRANOVA rates every team from every game it has played. Each result is credited by margin, so a blowout counts for little more than a comfortable win. Home field is credited. Ratings start from conference averages, so a team that has played a weak schedule is not overrated. Last season's finish carries a small starting credit that fades as games accumulate. Every projection is locked before kickoff and graded in public. Projections are statistical estimates for information and entertainment, not wagering advice. Data comes from ESPN public game feeds through Nov. 8, 2026, and market lines are from ESPN, DraftKings and Fox Sports as of Nov. 10. Lines may move.

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