STRANOVA rates every FBS team from every game it has played and projects Saturday's Holy War. Completely free. No cost. No sign up required.

How We Compare To The Market

Market is the posted line Nov. 2 to 4, 2026 (two sportsbooks agree on Utah -5.5). Lines move, so re-check Saturday morning. Our total projection has not beaten a simple average in testing, so we show it without a lean. Not wagering advice.

The Numbers

The Matchup Grid

Utah owns the better scoring offense and the better run game. BYU owns the better pass offense, pass defense and run defense. Scoring defense is a one-rank toss-up (BYU 15th, Utah 16th). The longer bar is the better rank.

How to read the ranks: we estimate every FBS team's scoring, rushing and passing strength from all of this season's games at once. A team that faced strong defenses is not penalized for it. Ranks are STRANOVA estimates, not raw national rankings.

Neutral field numbers come from the opponent adjusted scoring, rushing and passing estimates alone. The projected score on the cover adds a home field credit to Utah and takes it from BYU.

Who Each Team Has Actually Played

BYU has played the tougher schedule on offense: its FBS opponents' scoring offenses average 44th against 69th for Utah's. Scoring defenses are nearly even, 56th for BYU's opponents and 59th for Utah's. Both teams played one FCS opponent and one common opponent, Iowa State.

Utah, game by game

BYU, game by game

Rank cells shade from bright blue (top 10, the toughest opponents) to dim gray (outside the top 100). Blue only means a strong opponent. The bold bottom row of each table is Saturday's opponent. Idaho (Utah) and Utah Tech (BYU) are FCS and left out of averages.

How Each Team Performed Against Opponent Norms

For every game: what the team scored or allowed, compared with what that opponent normally gives up or produces.

Utah

BYU

Offense columns: positive means the team scored or gained more than that opponent normally allows. Defense columns: positive means the team held the opponent below what it normally produces. The norm excludes the game being measured. Opponent norms for 136 other teams rest on one data source (ESPN box scores).

Home And Road Split

Saturday is Utah at home and BYU on the road. Here is what each team has done in exactly that spot, against FBS opponents only.

Utah at home (4 FBS games: Arkansas, Utah State, Kansas, Houston)

BYU on the road (3 FBS games: Colorado State, TCU, UCF)

What it does to the projection

Method: each unit's home or road average, after taking out the normal home field effect, is blended toward its season average. More games means more weight. Positive shifts help the team. Scenarios are illustrative, not a new model version. The model of record is unchanged.

Turnovers And Third Down, Home Versus Road

Ball security and third down, game by game. Net is turnovers forced minus turnovers lost, so green is a good night.

Utah

BYU

Source: ESPN box scores. Points per 100 yards is points scored divided by total yards. Third down counts come from the game rows (Utah 53 of 98 for the season). Turnover timing by quarter is not in the box score feed and is not shown. Red zone efficiency follows in its own section.

Red Zone Efficiency

The red zone gap in this game is on defense. Utah's defense has let opponents score on 68% of their trips inside the 20 and reach the end zone on 42%. BYU's defense has let them score on 90% and reach the end zone on 71%. On offense the two teams are close. Against the norms of the teams they played, Utah's defense is still the standout.

FBS games only	Utah	BYU
OFFENSE: what each team does when it gets inside the 20 (7 FBS games each)
Trips per game	4.3	3.9
Scored on a trip (any points)	87%	85%
Touchdown on a trip	73%	74%
Points per trip	5.53	5.52
DEFENSE: what each team allows when the opponent gets inside the 20
Trips per game	2.7	3.0
Scored on a trip (any points)	68%	90%
Touchdown on a trip	42%	71%
Points per trip	3.74	5.57

A trip is a drive on which the offense ran a play from inside the opponent's 20. A drive that only ran out the clock is not counted. Points per trip counts 7 for a touchdown and 3 for a field goal. FCS games are left out, as elsewhere. These are SPIN counts built from play by play drive data, not a posted league stat. Opponent norms below use the opponents' other FBS games, 13 to 30 trips each.

Is it real? Against what their opponents usually do

For each game we take the opponent's red zone record in its other FBS games (the game against Utah or BYU is left out) and weight it by how many trips this game had. Positive on offense and negative on defense is good. Points are percentage points.

FBS games	Scored on a trip			Touchdown on a trip			Points per trip
	Actual	Opp. norm	Diff	Actual	Opp. norm	Diff	Actual	Opp. norm	Diff
Utah offense	87%	85%	+2	73%	62%	+11	5.53	5.01	+0.52
Utah defense (allowed)	68%	82%	-14	42%	62%	-20	3.74	4.95	-1.21
BYU offense	85%	85%	+0	74%	61%	+13	5.52	5.01	+0.51
BYU defense (allowed)	90%	87%	+3	71%	67%	+5	5.57	5.28	+0.29

Utah, opponent by opponent

BYU, opponent by opponent

Saturday's sites

Utah, game by game

BYU, game by game

Check: counting every game through Houston, Idaho included, Utah's defense allowed points on 12 of 17 trips (70.6%) and touchdowns on 8 of 17 (47%). That matches the figures the Deseret News reported on Oct. 27.

The Three Closest Comparables

For each team, the three past opponents whose offense and defense profile looks most like Saturday's opponent. These games are the closest thing to a rehearsal.

Treat this as a sanity check, not a forecast. Three games per team, profile gaps of 22 to 42 (lower means a closer match to Saturday's opponent), and different injuries in several of them. Common opponent: Utah won at Iowa State 31-17 (road). BYU beat Iowa State 24-10 (home). Both margins were 14.

Availability

The formal Big 12 availability reports come out this week. Until they do, this is what is reported.

What the Martin absence looks like in the data

The Swing Sheet

The handful of numbers that decide this game, each one checkable at halftime.

How STRANOVA Works, In 60 Seconds

STRANOVA rates every team from every game it has played. Each result is credited by margin with diminishing returns, so a blowout counts for little more than a comfortable win. Home field is credited. Ratings start from conference averages, so a team that has played a weak schedule is not overrated.

Tested on games it had not seen. Walk-forward on 314 FBS vs FBS games in weeks 4 to 9: 67.8% winner accuracy against 58.3% for picking the home team and 64.6% for picking the better record.

Projections are statistical estimates for information and entertainment, not wagering advice. Data: ESPN public game feeds through Nov. 1, 2026 (pulled Nov. 4). Market, schedule and injury context from the sources listed below.

Sources

ESPN public game and box score feeds; byucougars.com and KUTV (kickoff); Sports Betting Dime (BetMGM line, Nov. 2); ESPN odds via DraftKings (Nov. 4); Daily Utah Chronicle (Nov. 3); Provo.com (Nov. 3); Deseret News (Oct. 27) for the red zone check; Deseret News (Oct. 6) and SL Tribune (Oct. 5) on LJ Martin; AP via theScore.