SPINSTRANOVA  /  Boise State at Colorado State
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Boise State at
Colorado State
College Football Matchup Report  |  Week 10  |  Pac-12
Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026  •  4:00 PM MT  •  USA Network  •  Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins

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BSU
Boise State • 7-1 • Road

Broncos

48
QB Maddux Madsen, knee, day to day. Backup Max Cutforth. Coach Spencer Danielson.
Projected score
AT
Opponent adjusted
CSU
Colorado State • 3-5 • Home

Rams

32
QB Hauss Hejny. First year under coach Jim Mora.
Boise State favoredWin probability 86%Colorado State at homeTotal projection low confidence, no leanMadsen status open
Projected marginBoise State 24.6Model of record. The opponent adjusted scoring view says Boise State by 15.8.
Win probability86%Boise State. With the home and road split view: 81%
Home and road split viewBoise State 19.8Range 17.9 to 21.3 across scenarios. Small samples.
Market referenceBoise State 17.5Money line -950 / +625. Total 68.5. DraftKings, Nov. 2 to 4. Opened at 19.5. Re-check Saturday.
Boise State 86%Colorado State 14%
Model of recordBoise State 81% with the home and road split priced in

How We Compare To The Market

ItemMarketSTRANOVARead
SpreadBoise State -17.5 (opened -19.5)Boise State 24.6 model of record, 15.8 opponent adjusted scoring view, 19.8 with the home and road splitWe are higher on Boise State than the market, by about 7 points
Moneyline and win chance-950 / +625, about 87% Boise State after removing the sportsbook margin86% model of record, 81% with the home and road splitIn line with the market on who wins
Total68.579 (48 to 32)Low confidence, no lean

Market is the DraftKings line carried by ESPN and Yahoo Sports, Nov. 2 to 4, 2026. One sportsbook, so we will confirm with a second book Saturday morning. Lines move. Our total projection has not beaten a simple average in testing, so we show it without a lean. Not wagering advice.

The Numbers

Key Terms

STRANOVA rating
SPIN's team rating. Every game this season is credited by margin (with diminishing returns for blowouts), adjusted for who the opponent was and where it was played. A bigger rating gap means a bigger projected margin.
Opponent adjusted rank
Where a unit ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 is best) after accounting for the quality of the offenses and defenses it faced.
Vs opponent norm
How a team did in one game compared with what that opponent normally allows (for an offense) or normally produces (for a defense), not counting that game. Green is better, red is worse, white is about even.
Net pass yards per dropback
Passing yards after sack losses, divided by pass attempts plus sacks.
Rush yards per designed carry
Rushing yards on designed runs only. Sacks and their yardage are counted as passing plays.
Win probability
How often the favorite would win if this game were played many times, based on the rating gap.
Boise StateColorado State
STRANOVA ratingOne number per team from every game this season, adjusted for opponent and home field. Higher is better. Rank is among 138 FBS teams.7.9 30th−7.6 110th
Points for / against per gameRaw averages, not adjusted.35.9 / 23.635.5 / 42.4
Yards per play, offense / defenseGained by the offense / allowed by the defense. Raw.6.28 / 6.256.50 / 8.02
Rush yards per designed carry, offense / defenseSack yardage is taken out of the rushing numbers and put with passing. Raw.5.51 / 5.085.57 / 6.79
Net pass yards per dropback, offense / defensePassing yards minus sack losses, divided by pass attempts plus sacks. Raw.7.34 / 7.017.28 / 9.88
Turnovers lost / forced5 / 88 / 14
Sacks taken / madeSacks taken by the offense (yards lost) and sacks made by the defense.6 (35 yds) / 195 (41 yds) / 9
Average opponent ratingThe average STRANOVA rating of the 7 FBS teams each has played. Higher means a tougher schedule.+0.04−0.09
Record, losses7-1 (at Oregon)3-5

The Matchup Grid

Boise State holds the better rank in five of the six matchups. Colorado State's defense ranks last among 138 FBS teams in scoring, rushing and passing. The one near tie is the run game: Colorado State 36th, Boise State 38th. The longer bar is the better rank.

Boise State rankOpponent adjusted rank among 138 FBS teams, 1 is bestColorado State rank
17
Scoring offenseedge Boise State
25
38
Rushing offenseedge Colorado State
36
31
Passing offenseedge Boise State
54
63
Scoring defenseedge Boise State
138
100
Rush defenseedge Boise State
138
112
Pass defenseedge Boise State
138

How to read the ranks: we estimate every FBS team's scoring, rushing and passing strength from all of this season's games at once. A team that faced strong defenses is not penalized for it. Ranks are STRANOVA estimates, not raw national rankings.

BSUBoise State offense vs Colorado State defense

  • Expected on a neutral field: 48.4 points, 6.55 yards per designed carry, 10.27 net yards per dropback.
  • Boise State's pass offense ranks 31st and meets a pass defense ranked 138th. Its run game ranks 38th against a run defense ranked 138th.
  • Boise State's offense finished above its scoring norm in 7 of 7 FBS games, by 13.4 points on average.

CSUColorado State offense vs Boise State defense

  • Expected on a neutral field: 31.0 points, 5.59 yards per designed carry, 7.57 net yards per dropback.
  • Colorado State's scoring offense ranks 25th against a scoring defense ranked 63rd. Its pass offense ranks 54th against a pass defense ranked 112th.
  • Colorado State's offense beat its scoring norm in 5 of 7 FBS games. Boise State's defense beat its scoring norm in 3 of 7.

Neutral field numbers come from the opponent adjusted scoring, rushing and passing estimates alone. The projected score on the cover gives Colorado State a home field credit and takes the same credit from Boise State.

Who Each Team Has Actually Played

Boise State's FBS opponents average 71st in scoring offense rank and 64th in scoring defense. Colorado State's average 70th and 72nd. Each team has one top-25 opponent in the log (Oregon for Boise State, BYU for Colorado State) and one FCS opponent. Two common opponents, Texas State and Utah State, are below.

BSUBoise State, game by game

DateOpponentSiteScoreMarginOpponent OFFENSE rankOpponent DEFENSE rank
PtsRushPassPtsRushPass
9/5OregonRoad27-34L −7308643242210
9/12MemphisHome38-20W +182224118211989
9/19South DakotaHome38-24W +14FCS, not ranked
9/26Western MichiganRoad32-7W +259781100508393
10/3Utah StateHome37-18W +19133101121354235
10/10Fresno StateRoad38-31W +7768275459494
10/24Washington StateRoad31-10W +21119921339611564
10/31Texas StateHome46-45W +12315321142091
Average opponent rank (FBS only)716974647168
11/7Colorado StateRoadSatNext253654138138138

CSUColorado State, game by game

DateOpponentSiteScoreMarginOpponent OFFENSE rankOpponent DEFENSE rank
PtsRushPassPtsRushPass
9/5WyomingHome35-13W +22132291265813055
9/12Southern UtahHome58-24W +34FCS, not ranked
9/19BYUHome23-41L −1840542115305
9/26UTSARoad45-59L −144843878577130
10/3Oregon StateHome26-56L −30167126757585
10/15Texas StateRoad27-66L −392315321142091
10/24San Diego StateHome56-49W +79910512212043121
10/31Utah StateRoad14-31L −17133101121354235
Average opponent rank (FBS only)706076726075
11/7Boise StateHomeSatNext17383163100112

Rank cells shade from bright blue (top 10, the toughest opponents) to dim gray (outside the top 100). Blue only means a strong opponent. The bold bottom row of each table is Saturday's opponent. South Dakota (Boise State) and Southern Utah (Colorado State) are FCS and left out of averages.

Common opponents

OpponentBoise StateColorado State
Texas StateW 46-45 (home)L 27-66 (road)
Utah StateW 37-18 (home)L 14-31 (road)

Boise State played both at home and Colorado State played both on the road, so part of the gap is site. Boise State's 46-45 win over Texas State came after it led 28-3 at halftime.

How Each Team Performed Against Opponent Norms

For every game: what the team scored or allowed, compared with what that opponent normally gives up or produces.

Green better than the opponent's normRed worseWhite about even (within 1 point or 0.25 yards)

BSUBoise State

DateOpponentSiteOFFENSE vs opponent normDEFENSE vs opponent norm
PointsRush yds per carryPass net yds per dropbackPointsRush yds per carryPass net yds per dropback
9/5OregonRoad+6.4−1.20−0.30−0.9−0.75−2.41
9/12MemphisHome+16.2+2.34+2.17+19.8−0.21−4.73
9/19South DakotaHomeFCS, no opponent norm
9/26Western MichiganRoad+14.4−0.50+3.15+21.6−0.88+3.12
10/3Utah StateHome+17.3+0.40+6.01−1.3−3.16+1.23
10/10Fresno StateRoad+19.4+1.30+0.71−2.4−0.66−0.29
10/24Washington StateRoad+4.0+1.91+0.13+10.1+1.75+1.19
10/31Texas StateHome+16.0−0.79+0.99−7.9+1.25+0.44
Average vs FBS opponents+13.4+0.50+1.84+5.6−0.38−0.21

CSUColorado State

DateOpponentSiteOFFENSE vs opponent normDEFENSE vs opponent norm
PointsRush yds per carryPass net yds per dropbackPointsRush yds per carryPass net yds per dropback
9/5WyomingHome+17.1−1.00+2.04+7.4+1.26−0.13
9/12Southern UtahHomeFCS, no opponent norm
9/19BYUHome+4.9−0.74+0.69−9.9−3.58−5.98
9/26UTSARoad+21.7+0.39−0.62−29.1−0.56−3.45
10/3Oregon StateHome+1.1+1.83+0.22−18.1−1.70−3.93
10/15Texas StateRoad−5.7+1.34+0.03−31.9−3.84−3.20
10/24San Diego StateHome+24.4+0.85+3.51−25.4−1.22−5.60
10/31Utah StateRoad−9.0−0.68−0.25−16.1−1.74−3.75
Average vs FBS opponents+7.8+0.28+0.80−17.6−1.63−3.72

Offense columns: positive means the team scored or gained more than that opponent normally allows. Defense columns: positive means the team held the opponent below what it normally produces. The norm excludes the game being measured. Opponent norms for the other 137 teams rest on one data source (ESPN box scores).

Home And Road Split

Saturday is Colorado State at home and Boise State on the road. Here is what each team has done in exactly that spot, against FBS opponents only.

CSUColorado State at home (4 FBS games: Wyoming, BYU, Oregon State, San Diego State)

SiteFBS gamesOFFENSE vs normDEFENSE vs norm
PointsRushPassPointsRushPass
Home4+11.9+0.24+1.61−11.5−1.31−3.91
Road3+2.3+0.35−0.28−25.7−2.05−3.47
Season7+7.8+0.28+0.80−17.6−1.63−3.72

BSUBoise State on the road (4 FBS games: Oregon, Western Michigan, Fresno State, Washington State)

SiteFBS gamesOFFENSE vs normDEFENSE vs norm
PointsRushPassPointsRushPass
Home3+16.5+0.65+3.06+3.5−0.71−1.02
Road4+11.1+0.38+0.92+7.1−0.13+0.40
Season7+13.4+0.50+1.84+5.6−0.38−0.21
What the split says. Colorado State's offense has been better at home (+11.9 points vs norm) than on the road (+2.3). Its defense has been below norm in both places: −11.5 at home and −25.7 on the road. Boise State's offense has been above norm at home (+16.5) and on the road (+11.1), and its defense has been better on the road (+7.1) than at home (+3.5). Both samples are tiny (3 and 4 FBS games), and part of any home and road gap is the normal home field effect, which the table does not remove. We therefore blend the site numbers with the full season, as the next table shows.

What it does to the projection

ScenarioWeight on site gamesBoise State offense shiftBoise State defense shiftColorado State offense shiftColorado State defense shiftBoise State marginBoise State win
Model of recordn/a0.00.00.00.024.686%
Conservativen/(n+6)−0.7+0.9+1.4+2.221.383%
Centraln/(n+3)−1.0+1.2+2.0+3.119.881%
Aggressiven/(n+1)−1.4+1.7+2.8+4.417.978%

Method: each unit's home or road average, after taking out the normal home field effect, is blended toward its season average. More games means more weight. Positive shifts help the team. Scenarios are illustrative, not a new model version. The model of record is unchanged.

Turnovers And Third Down, Home Versus Road

Ball security and third down, game by game. Net is turnovers forced minus turnovers lost, so green is a good night.

BSUBoise State

DateOpponentSiteLostForcedNetOwn third downsOpponent third downsPoints per 100 yards
9/5OregonRoad01+14 of 154 of 129.9
9/12MemphisHome01+16 of 131 of 86.6
9/19South DakotaHome22+08 of 133 of 127.1
9/26Western MichiganRoad01+110 of 142 of 118.5
10/3Utah StateHome11+08 of 134 of 138.6
10/10Fresno StateRoad00+05 of 133 of 67.4
10/24Washington StateRoad01+17 of 126 of 177.6
10/31Texas StateHome21−19 of 166 of 159.5
Home4 games55+031 of 55 (56%)14 of 48 (29%)
Road4 games03+326 of 54 (48%)15 of 46 (33%)
Season8 games58+357 of 109 (52%)29 of 94 (31%)

CSUColorado State

DateOpponentSiteLostForcedNetOwn third downsOpponent third downsPoints per 100 yards
9/5WyomingHome04+47 of 150 of 88.8
9/12Southern UtahHome14+38 of 156 of 148.6
9/19BYUHome12+17 of 144 of 97.6
9/26UTSARoad10−16 of 179 of 169.0
10/3Oregon StateHome11+06 of 117 of 87.1
10/15Texas StateRoad01+14 of 155 of 96.2
10/24San Diego StateHome22+09 of 128 of 1310.2
10/31Utah StateRoad20−24 of 117 of 115.3
Home5 games513+837 of 67 (55%)25 of 52 (48%)
Road3 games31−214 of 43 (33%)21 of 36 (58%)
Season8 games814+651 of 110 (46%)46 of 88 (52%)

Source: ESPN box scores. Points per 100 yards is points scored divided by total yards. Third down counts are the sum of the game rows (Boise State 57 of 109, Colorado State 51 of 110) and match CFBStats season totals. Turnover timing by quarter is not in the box score feed and is not shown.

Finishing Drives And Money Downs

Red zone and third and fourth down, with the rank among 138 FBS teams. Colorado State's finishing offense is its strength. Its defense is the problem.

The season at a glance

MetricBoise StateRankColorado StateRank
Red zone offense25 TD, 5 FG on 34 trips (74% TD)2124 TD, 1 FG on 29 trips (83% TD)1
Red zone defense (allowed)11 TD, 5 FG on 21 trips (52% TD)4928 TD, 6 FG on 39 trips (72% TD)129
Third down offense57 of 109 (52%)851 of 110 (46%)27
Third down defense (allowed)29 of 94 (31%)1246 of 88 (52%)137
Fourth down offense13 of 18 (72%)1514 of 22 (64%)31
Fourth down defense (allowed)6 of 19 (32%)134 of 5 (80%)134
Red zone totals are the official CFBStats split. Red zone ranks are drive-parse TD-rate ranks (higher TD rate on offense, lower allowed on defense); official CFBStats red zone ranks not yet pulled. Third and fourth down are ESPN per-game sums, which match CFBStats exactly for both teams on both sides. All-games figures include Boise State's FCS game against South Dakota and Colorado State's against Southern Utah.

Game by game

Boise State offense: red zone trips and money downs

WkOpponent (rank of 138)SiteScoreTripsTDFGEmptyTD rateOpponent norm3rd down4th down
1Oregon (24)A27-34 L522140%48% on 21 trips4-152-3
2Memphis (61)H38-20 W430175%56% on 25 trips6-132-3
3South Dakota (FCS)H38-24 W4400100%n/a (FCS)8-130-2
4Western Michigan (83)A32-7 W531160%60% on 25 trips10-140-0
5Utah State (80)H37-18 W430175%44% on 16 trips8-131-2
6Fresno State (63)A38-31 W211050%42% on 19 trips5-134-4
8Washington State (114)A31-10 W321067%56% on 34 trips7-121-1
9Texas State (60)H46-45 W870188%69% on 26 trips9-163-3
All games35255571%
FBS only31215568%

Boise State defense: red zone trips allowed and money downs allowed

WkOpponent (rank of 138)SiteScoreTripsTDFGEmptyTD rateOpponent norm3rd down4th down
1Oregon (24)A27-34 L431075%64% on 33 trips4-120-3
2Memphis (61)H38-20 W40220%64% on 42 trips1-80-2
3South Dakota (FCS)H38-24 W320167%n/a (FCS)3-120-1
4Western Michigan (83)A32-7 W1100100%68% on 31 trips2-110-3
5Utah State (80)H37-18 W311133%48% on 21 trips4-131-3
6Fresno State (63)A38-31 W3300100%54% on 28 trips3-60-0
8Washington State (114)A31-10 W210150%63% on 19 trips6-174-5
9Texas State (60)H46-45 W211050%57% on 35 trips6-151-2
All games22125555%
FBS only19105453%

Colorado State offense: red zone trips and money downs

WkOpponent (rank of 138)SiteScoreTripsTDFGEmptyTD rateOpponent norm3rd down4th down
1Wyoming (113)H35-13 W4400100%36% on 22 trips7-152-2
2Southern Utah (FCS)H58-24 W421150%n/a (FCS)8-150-1
3BYU (19)H23-41 L3300100%65% on 20 trips7-140-1
4UTSA (57)A45-59 L4400100%52% on 25 trips6-175-6
5Oregon State (50)H26-56 L640267%54% on 24 trips6-111-2
7Texas State (60)A27-66 L2200100%72% on 32 trips4-152-5
8San Diego State (106)H56-49 W540180%66% on 35 trips9-122-2
9Utah State (80)A14-31 L1100100%47% on 19 trips4-112-3
All games29241483%
FBS only25220388%

Colorado State defense: red zone trips allowed and money downs allowed

WkOpponent (rank of 138)SiteScoreTripsTDFGEmptyTD rateOpponent norm3rd down4th down
1Wyoming (113)H35-13 W211050%48% on 29 trips0-80-1
2Southern Utah (FCS)H58-24 W421150%n/a (FCS)6-140-0
3BYU (19)H23-41 L641167%81% on 27 trips4-90-0
4UTSA (57)A45-59 L4400100%50% on 28 trips9-160-0
5Oregon State (50)H26-56 L5500100%73% on 33 trips7-81-1
7Texas State (60)A27-66 L971178%50% on 28 trips5-92-2
8San Diego State (106)H56-49 W431075%65% on 26 trips8-131-1
9Utah State (80)A14-31 L531160%42% on 19 trips7-110-0
All games39296474%
FBS only35275377%
Game tables come from the ESPN drive parse (a trip is a drive with a real snap inside the 20; end-of-game kneel drives excluded). Opponent norm: offense tables show that opponent's TD rate allowed in its other games; defense tables show that opponent's own offensive TD rate in its other games. 3rd and 4th down are conversions-attempts for the side shown.

Settle Rate

Team and sideAgainst top-50 opponentsAgainst the rest
Boise State offense TD rate40% on 5 trips (Oregon)77% on 30 trips
Boise State defense TD rate allowed75% on 4 trips (Oregon)50% on 18 trips
Colorado State offense TD rate78% on 9 trips (BYU, Oregon State)85% on 20 trips
Colorado State defense TD rate allowed82% on 11 trips (BYU, Oregon State)71% on 28 trips
Top 50 means the opponent ranks in the top 50 of 138 on the v0.4 rating. Samples are tiny (Boise State has one top-50 opponent, Oregon). Read as direction, not proof.

What it means for Saturday

Side of the ballExpected tripsExpected points per tripExpected red zone pointsSeason TD rateWorst game TD rate (3+ trips)Swing at that rate
Boise State offense vs Colorado State defense4.65.5525.771%40% (Oregon, 2 of 5)5.8 points
Colorado State offense vs Boise State defense3.25.2016.683%50% (Southern Utah, 2 of 4)4.2 points
Expected trips and points per trip average the offense's season rate with what the defense allows. Swing = expected trips x (season TD rate minus the offense's worst single-game rate with 3+ trips) x 4 points (TD over FG margin).

Read

  • Colorado State's defense is the story: 137th on third down, 134th on fourth down, 129th on red zone TD rate allowed. Opponents have scored a touchdown on 28 of 39 trips.
  • Boise State's defense keeps opponents out of the zone (2.8 trips a game) and holds third down to 30.9% (12th).
  • Colorado State's one finishing strength is its offense: 82.8% TD rate on 29 trips (1st of 138, FBS-only 88% on 25). The offense reaches the zone only 3.6 times a game against Boise State's 2.6 allowed.

Game tables come from the ESPN drive data. Season totals and ranks come from CFBStats. A trip is a drive with a real snap inside the opponent 20. The two sources agree within one trip for every team and side. Red zone and third down are not yet inputs to the rating.

The Three Closest Comparables

For each team, the three past opponents whose offense and defense profile looks most like Saturday's opponent. These games are the closest thing to a rehearsal.

BSUBoise State vs teams like Colorado State

OpponentSiteScoreMarginProfile gap
MemphisHomeW 38-20+1830.3
Texas StateHomeW 46-45+139.0
Fresno StateRoadW 38-31+749.8

Average margin +8.7, record 3-0. 2 home and 1 road.

CSUColorado State vs teams like Boise State

OpponentSiteScoreMarginProfile gap
Oregon StateHomeL 26-56−3017.2
UTSARoadL 45-59−1425.8
Texas StateRoadL 27-66−3930.3

Average margin −27.7, record 0-3. 1 home and 2 road.

What the comparables say. Boise State's Colorado State-type opponents produced an average margin of +8.7 for Boise State. Moving the home games to a road site puts that near +6.7. Colorado State's Boise State-type opponents produced −27.7 for Colorado State. Moving the road games to a home site puts that near −25.7. Averaging the two views gives Boise State by about 16.2, below the model of record margin and close to the market.

Treat this as a sanity check, not a forecast. Three games per team, profile gaps of 17 to 50 (lower means a closer match to Saturday's opponent), and different injuries in several of them. The 3 point site adjustment is a rule of thumb, not a model output.

Availability

The biggest open question is Boise State's quarterback. Until formal availability reports come out, this is what is reported.

BSUBoise State

  • Quarterback Maddux Madsen hurt his left knee in the fourth quarter of the 46-45 win over Texas State on Oct. 31. Coach Spencer Danielson said Monday, Nov. 2, the injury is not serious and Madsen is day to day. He did not commit to Madsen for Saturday.
  • Backup Max Cutforth finished that game and threw three fourth quarter touchdown passes.
  • Madsen has 148 completions in 222 attempts for 1,681 yards, 15 touchdowns and 1 interception this season (ESPN).

CSUColorado State

  • Quarterback Hauss Hejny leads the Rams in passing: 90 of 134, 1,138 yards, 14 touchdowns, 2 interceptions (ESPN).
  • First year head coach Jim Mora. Colorado State is 3-5 overall and 1-3 in the Pac-12 after the 31-14 loss at Utah State on Oct. 31.
  • We found no injury report on other Colorado State players.
What the model does not know. STRANOVA's ratings are built from games with Madsen at quarterback and carry no adjustment for a backup. If Cutforth starts, Boise State's passing numbers on this page are less reliable than they look, and the market would likely move.

The Swing Sheet

The handful of numbers that decide this game, each one checkable at halftime.

The Pass Leak7 of 7FBS games where Colorado State's pass defense finished worse than the opponent norm, by 3.7 net yards per dropback on average. It ranks 138th.
Above Norm7 of 7FBS games where Boise State's offense beat its scoring norm, by 13.4 points on average.
Shootout Meter59.5 vs 77.9Combined points per game in Boise State games and in Colorado State games. The posted total is 68.5.
Third Down Gate5 of 7FBS games where Colorado State's defense allowed 55 percent or more on third down. Boise State converted 55 percent or more in 5 of 8 games.
Texas State Warning3 of 8Games where Boise State's defense allowed 31 or more points (Oregon 34, Fresno State 31, Texas State 45). Colorado State allowed 41 or more in 5 of 8.

BSUHow Boise State wins

ThresholdWhat the season saysStatus
Keep scoring above its normBoise State beat its scoring norm in 7 of 7 FBS games. Colorado State's scoring defense ranks 138th.Likely
Throw on the weakest pass defense in FBSBoise State's pass offense ranks 31st and beat its pass norm in 6 of 7 FBS games. Colorado State's pass defense was below norm in 7 of 7. Madsen status decides who throws.Unknown
Do not repeat the Texas State second halfBoise State led 28-3 at halftime and allowed 36 straight points before winning 46-45. It has allowed 31 or more in 3 of 8 games.Live
Convert third downsBoise State converted 55 percent or more in 5 of 8 games and 57 of 109 for the season. Colorado State's defense ranks 137th on third down.Likely

CSUHow Colorado State wins

ThresholdWhat the season saysStatus
Turn it into a shootoutColorado State scored 45 or more in 3 of 8 games (Southern Utah 58, UTSA 45, San Diego State 56) and its offense beat its scoring norm in 5 of 7 FBS games. Boise State's scoring defense ranks 63rd.Live
Win the turnover battleColorado State is net +6 (14 forced, 8 lost). Boise State is net +3 (8 forced, 5 lost) and lost zero turnovers in 5 of 8 games.Live
Run on a weak run defenseColorado State's run game ranks 36th against a Boise State run defense ranked 100th. Boise State's defense was above its rush norm in only 2 of 7 FBS games.Unknown
Stop the Boise State offenseColorado State's defense was worse than its scoring norm in 6 of 7 FBS games, and ranks last in FBS in scoring, rushing and passing.Hard
Confidence: low to moderate. In weeks 4 to 9 the model's projected margin missed the final margin by about 14 points on average, so read any single margin as a range. The projected total is low confidence. The quarterback question on Boise State's side adds uncertainty that the model does not price.

How STRANOVA Works, In 60 Seconds

STRANOVA rates every team from every game it has played. Each result is credited by margin with diminishing returns, so a blowout counts for little more than a comfortable win. Home field is credited. Ratings start from conference averages, so a team that has played a weak schedule is not overrated.

Tested on games it had not seen. Walk-forward on 314 FBS vs FBS games in weeks 4 to 9: 67.8% winner accuracy against 58.3% for picking the home team and 64.6% for picking the better record.

Projections are statistical estimates for information and entertainment, not wagering advice. Data: ESPN public game feeds through Nov. 1, 2026 (pulled Nov. 4), CFBStats for red zone and money down season totals. Market, schedule and injury context from the sources listed below.

Sources

ESPN public game and box score feeds and odds feed (DraftKings, Nov. 4); Yahoo Sports and Boise State Broncos On SI (Nov. 2: Madsen injury, DraftKings line); Fox Sports game page (Nov. 4); Wikipedia 2026 Boise State and Colorado State football pages (schedules, coaches); broncosports.com and csurams.com (series history, kickoff); Idaho News 6 and the csurams.com box score (Nov. 22, 2025 result); Rotowire (Nov. 2); CFBStats.